ZDF “Politbarometer”: Söder clearly ahead of Merz – Even SPD supporters against Scholz

In the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia last Sunday, all parties in the traffic light coalition performed very poorly, which can also be attributed to the ongoing, pronounced dissatisfaction with the federal government. According to the new ZDF “Politbarometer”, 71 percent of those surveyed currently say that the federal government is doing its job rather poorly (rather well: 25 percent, the rest “don’t know”).

Despite this very poor rating, only 38 percent of all respondents believe that the CDU/CSU would do better if it were in government (worse: 12 percent; no difference: 45 percent). The fact that many do not see the Union as a credible alternative to the traffic light coalition is also an important reason why parties such as the AfD and the BSW have now achieved such good results.

Greens lose two percentage points

As is usually the case after state elections, there are also major changes in the Sunday question (“Which party would you vote for if there were a general election next Sunday?”) immediately afterwards. The Union is at 33 percent (plus 1 percentage point compared to the last survey three weeks ago), the AfD at 17 percent (also plus 1 percentage point), the SPD at 15 percent (also plus 1 percentage point), the Greens at just 11 percent (minus 2 percentage points), the BSW at 7 percent (minus 1 percentage point), the FDP at an unchanged 4 percent, the Left also at 4 percent (plus 1 percentage point), and all other parties together at 9 percent (minus 1 percentage point). ) – among them is no party with three percent.

In the surveys conducted by other institutes over the past two weeks, the Union is between 31 and 33 percent, the AfD between 17 and 19 percent, the SPD between 14 and 15 percent, the Greens between 10.5 and 12 percent, the BSW between 7 and 9.5 percent, the FDP between 4 and 5 percent, the Left between 2.5 and 3 percent and all other parties together between 7.5 and 11 percent.

In order to gain a majority in Saxony and Thuringia without the AfD, the CDU is dependent on cooperation with the BSW, but in Thuringia even that is not enough. 51 percent support the CDU forming a government with the BSW in the east, while 41 percent are against it. Opinions are divided among CDU/CSU supporters (45 percent for, 46 percent against).

With a party conference resolution, the CDU has ruled out cooperation with the AfD and the Left. As far as the AfD is concerned, 72 percent of all respondents think this is correct (not correct: 25 percent), whereas only 43 percent think the general exclusion of cooperation with the Left is correct (not correct: 50 percent). Union supporters are more supportive of the incompatibility resolution: 84 percent of them are against cooperation with the AfD (in favor: 15 percent) and 59 percent are against cooperation with the Left (in favor: 35 percent).

Söder clearly ahead of Merz – SPD majority against Scholz

After the state election in Brandenburg on September 22nd, the nomination of the Union’s candidate for chancellor is imminent. Those surveyed are divided as to which of the possible candidates has the greatest chance of doing well in the federal election: 29 percent see the best chances with Markus Söder, 23 percent with Friedrich Merz, 20 percent with Hendrik Wüst and 8 percent with Daniel Günther.

Among Union supporters, Söder (32 percent) and Merz (31 percent) are almost neck and neck, followed by Wüst (25 percent) and Günther (4 percent). In the last survey in mid-August 33 percent were for Söder, 25 percent each for Merz and Wüst and 7 percent for Günther.

When it comes to assessing politicians based on their likeability and performance (“What do you think of them?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place in the “Politbarometer.” He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average value of 1.8 (August: 1.7). Markus Söder is in second place by a clear margin with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative area begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with a personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9), Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (unchanged) and Alice Weidel with minus 2.7 (unchanged).

Support is also dwindling on the question of whether Olaf Scholz should run again as the SPD’s candidate for chancellor in the next federal election. Only 23 percent (August: 29 percent) want this and 74 percent (August: 67 percent) are against it.

Even SPD supporters are now divided on the issue: 47 percent are in favor, 49 percent against. In the last survey in mid-August, 53 percent were in favor and 41 percent against.

Can no longer cope with the many refugees, say 71 percent

The topic of refugees/asylum/migration now clearly dominates the domestic political discussion, with 45 percent (August: 27 percent). A clear majority of 71 percent are of the opinion that we in Germany can no longer cope with the large number of refugees from crisis areas, only 27 percent are optimistic. In March, 42 percent still thought that we could cope with it and 55 percent were skeptical.

The Politbarometer survey was conducted by the Mannheim Research Group on Elections. The interviews were conducted by telephone and online between September 3 and 5 with 1,328 randomly selected voters. Both landline and mobile phone numbers were taken into account. The survey represents the voting population in Germany. The margin of error is around +/- three percentage points for a share value of 40 percent and around +/- two percentage points for a share value of 10 percent.