Why Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are coming away empty-handed this time

Questions and answers about the start of the NFL season: Which 2023 playoff teams will not make it in 2024?

There have been 14 playoff teams since the 2020 season, before that there were twelve. Statistically speaking, just over half of the playoff teams in recent years have made it to the postseason again next year. That means that in 2024, six or seven new teams would end up playing for the title. Who could they send on the plane to Cancun early? Of course, quarterback injuries will play a decisive role, just think of Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals last year. But even so, there are a few candidates.

Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans (AFC)

San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams (NFC-)

In my opinion, these eight teams are generally unchangeable, that is, if the QB stays healthy. Yes, the Bills have clearly lost a talented player in the squad, and in theory Stroud and Love’s performances in Houston and Green Bay could have been a flash in the pan. On the contrary, I see them continuing to climb.

• No longer in the playoffs:

Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles (NFC-)

Despite stronger defenses, the Browns and Steelers’ quarterbacks are the weakest point: I simply have no faith in Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. Tua Tagovailoa in Miami is at least a class better, but still not worth his big new contract. The Dolphins have also lost a lot of core players: a long absence of the now 30-year-old Tyreek Hill and things are getting very tight. In the NFC, I feared a gradual decline of the Eagles, the parts in Philly no longer seem to be working properly together. There are already a few injuries. As for the Bucs, I doubt that Baker Mayfield can repeat his good last season.

New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC)

Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears (NFC-)

It’s a clear case in the AFC: Aaron Rodgers (Jets), Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Trevor Lawrence (Jags) were either severely affected by injuries last year or even completely out. If they are fit again, their teams should be strong enough for the postseason. In the NFC, at least one representative from the South has to make it, and if Tampa Bay is weak, the Bears could get a wild card with just a solid season from Caleb Wilson. I actually see nothing beyond that.

Conclusion: In the end, there are “only” five new playoff teams, but perhaps the big surprise this time is that there are fewer surprises than usual.