NFL 2024 Week 1 Betting: Ravens-Chiefs Odds, Picks and Lines

The 2024 NFL season begins Thursday night with the reigning Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs entered the rematch of the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens as 3-point favorites, and that lead currently sits at 46.5 total.

Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Chiefs (-3)
Money line: Chiefs (-150), Ravens (+130)
Over/Under: 46.5

Distribution of the first half: Chiefs -2.5 (+115), Ravens +2.5 (-145)
Chiefs total points: over 24.5 (even), under 24.5 (-130)
Ravens total points: over 21.5 (-115), under 21.5 (-115)

The props

Passing Yards

• Patrick Mahomes’ total passing yards: over 269.5 (-115), under 269.5 (-115)

• Lamar Jackson’s total passing yards: over 221.5 (-115), under 221.5 (-115)

Passing touchdowns

• Mahomes’ total number of passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (-180), under 1.5 (+145)

• Jackson’s total passing touchdowns: over 1.5 (+135), under 1.5 (-170)

Rushing Yards

• Isiah Pacheco’s total rushing yards: over 58.5 (-115), under 58.5 (-115)

• Derrick Henry’s total rushing yards: over 63.5 (-115), under 63.5 (-115)

• Jackson’s total rushing yards: over 47.5 (-110), under 47.5 (-120)

• Mahomes’ total rushing yards: over 20.5 (-110), under 20.5 (-120)

Reception courtyards

• Travis Kelce – Total Receiving Yards: over 57.5 (-120), under 57.5 (-110)

• Zay Flowers total yards received: over 52.5 (-115), under 52.5 (-115)

• Mark Andrews: Total yards received: over 48.5 (-115), under 48.5 (-115)

• Rashod Bateman – Total Receiving Yards: over 28.5 (-120), under 28.5 (-110)

Tip of the game: under 46.5

Although this matchup features two of the league’s most explosive offenses, I have my eye on the Under 46.5 for Thursday night, primarily because of the impressive defenses that will be on display. Both defensive units are elite, with the Ravens and Chiefs being the two best defenses last season.

The Ravens led the NFL in sacks and takeaways, while Baltimore’s secondary features one of the league’s best safeties in Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton, along with cornerback Marlon Humphrey, can effectively disguise coverages, potentially forcing Mahomes to hold onto the ball longer and increasing the chances of sacks or rushed throws.

The Chiefs’ defensive strength is the pass rush, led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who combined for an impressive 21 sacks last season. Baltimore’s offensive line could be a potential weak point in 2024, with questions raised about the inexperience of new players. The Ravens return only two starters, which could impact the pass defense.

Kansas City’s receivers also remain a question mark. The Chiefs did sign speedster Xavier Worthy in the draft, but he is still an unproven rookie. Jackson, meanwhile, will operate behind younger talent and with a new running back in Derrick Henry. Henry should help with ball control, but it could take some time for the offense to fully gel.

The Ravens’ ability to limit big plays and force short passes, coupled with the Chiefs’ pass rush potentially taking advantage of Baltimore’s inexperienced offensive line, could keep the scoring under control. These factors, along with both teams’ offensive adjustments, suggest the total will stay under 46.5 for this season opener. – Pamela Maldonado

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info

• Jackson has a career record of 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, the best record of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (at least five starts). He has a record of 10-4 overall, the best record of any quarterback with at least six starts as an underdog.

• Jackson has a career regular season road record of 25-11-2 ATS.

• The Ravens are 12-4 ATS in Week 1 under John Harbaugh (7-1 ATS over the past eight seasons), the second-best mark of any head coach in the Super Bowl era with at least 10 games (Tom Flores, 10-2).

• The defending Super Bowl champions are 0-3 ATS in Week 1 the last three seasons after losing two in a row. They are 13-4-3 ATS over the last 20 seasons.

• The Ravens finished 13-4 last season. The last 13-win team to trail by at least 3 points in Week 1 the following season was the 2013 Falcons (+3.5 at the Saints and 6 losses).

• The Ravens were 11-6 ATS last season and covered games by an average of 8.2 points per game. It was the second-highest average coverage margin of the last decade, behind only the 2019 Ravens (10.3 PPG).

• In the Chiefs’ games last season, the Unders’ record was 11-6 (13-8 including playoffs).

• The prime-time unders are 70-42-1 over the last two seasons (35-23 last season).

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