Shift to the right? Germany no exception in the EU – DW – 03.09.2024

After the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, in which the right-wing populist and in some parts right-wing extremist state associations of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the strongest and second strongest forces, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica sees a neo-Nazi wave sweeping across Germany. The French newspaper Le Monde calls the election results “worrying” because of Germany’s National Socialist past and its current weight in Europe. The Spanish newspaper El Pais speaks of a serious alarm. There is a danger that Germany will turn into the politically sick man of Europe. The concerns are also great, although right-wing extremist and populist tendencies have long been established in the three larger EU states of Italy, France and Spain – and not only there.

From the coins to the federal government?

The rise of the AfD will probably not only continue in state elections, it could also triumph at the federal level next year. The current polls see the AfD as the second strongest force (16-19 percent) behind the Christian Democratic Union (31-34 percent). For Nick Alipour from the internet platform “Euractiv”, Germany is no exception in Europe, but is following the European trend. “Germany is not a pioneer. We had that in the Netherlands, in Italy, in France, in Sweden. Germany is following the trend and is not exempt from the development,” says the Euractiv correspondent in his latest podcast.

Italy is governed by right-wing extremists

There are certain parallels with Italy, for example. There, the former regional party Lega has already participated in government at the central state level on several occasions. At the same time, it is strong in the northern Italian regions and has the president in Veneto, Lombardy, Friuli and Umbria. There has never been a firewall there, i.e. an exclusion of coalitions with the Christian Democrats.

The Lega governed together with the Christian Democrat Silvio Berlusconi. The Lega even governed together with the more left-wing populists of the Five Star Movement as a junior partner. That would be a bit like the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance forming a coalition. Since 2022, the far-right Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia) have overtaken the Lega. They were the strongest force in national elections, even ahead of the Lega. Since then, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has led a right-wing coalition of Fratelli, Lega and Christian Democrats.

An FPÖ chancellor could come to Austria

There is no firewall in Austria either. On the contrary: The right-wing extremist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) was already part of the government in the 1980s in a coalition with the Social Democrats. From 2000 onwards there were four coalition governments with the Christian Democrats. The FPÖ started out as a regional party in the federal state of Carinthia. After several splits and programmatic realignments – similar to the German AfD – the FPÖ is now established in nine state parliaments and is part of three federal state governments.

Despite many scandals, the FPÖ is in first place in polls for the national parliamentary elections at the end of September with 27-31 percent. The Christian Democrats are in second place. FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl reckons he has a good chance of becoming – as he calls it – Austria’s “People’s Chancellor”. The AfD and the FPÖ maintain close contact. Kickl could be a role model for the Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke.

France between extreme poles

In France, the firewall is still holding. French President Emmanuel Macron will not work with either the far-right Rassemblement National or the far-left Unyielding French. That is why there is no majority in parliament after the early elections in July because Macron cannot find a coalition partner. This is somewhat reminiscent of the situation in the state parliaments in Erfurt and Dresden. The Rassemblement National performed surprisingly weaker than expected and only became the third strongest force.

However, the party that emerged from the Front National party has become increasingly stronger in recent years. It is represented in numerous local and regional bodies, but cannot govern anywhere on its own. Marine Le Pen, former party leader, has gained ground in each presidential election. She will run again in 2027 and has a good chance of actually winning in her third attempt after 2022 and 2017.

In Spain, right-wing extremists in regional governments

In Spain, the Social Democrats are holding on to power in a minority government that is tolerated by left-wing separatist parties. The far-right Vox party has been growing steadily for years and is in third place nationwide. In July, however, it fell out with the Christian Democrats, with whom it governed in over 100 municipalities and five regions. There was never any talk of a firewall.

In July, party leader Santiago Abascal announced a break with the Christian Democrats because they had agreed to accept migrants from the Canary Islands on the Spanish mainland. Whether this break was just a theatrical stunt or serious remains to be seen. Vox and the Christian Democrats actually want to replace the Socialists in the national government.

Hungary’s reconstruction

In the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland and other EU states, right-wing extremists are also represented in governments. In Hungary, the right-wing nationalist to right-wing extremist Fidesz party has been the prime minister for 14 years without interruption. Viktor Orban radicalized the party and Hungary during his long term in office, in a confrontation with the European Union (EU). Hungary is now the European state with the most stable right-wing populist government. In Poland, this phase is over. There, the Christian Democrats replaced the right-wing extremist PiS party after elections last year.

Populism, albeit from the left, has also overcome Greece. The far-left Syriza government, which was in coalition with the far-right Anel party, was replaced by Christian Democrats in 2019.

“Not an East German special case”

Overall, a trend towards right-wing extremist parties can be observed in many European countries, which is mainly triggered by migration policy, economic upheavals and a general feeling of disconnection among many voters.

The former Social Democratic President of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Thierse, sees the tendency towards extremes not only in Thuringia or Saxony. The AfD is also strong in Bavaria and Hesse, and also outside of East Germany. And the same applies to Europe, said Wolfgang Thierse on Deutschlandfunk: “This does not only apply to East Germany, but if you look around at Holland, France, Italy, and the Scandinavian countries, we are seeing the advance of extreme parties, populist parties, everywhere.” If it were just an East German special case, then one could calm down and say that it can be overcome.