Ukraine must expect a collapse of its Donbass defense line.

Ukraine proposes dismantling the front line in Donbass

Of the few F-16 fighter jets that have arrived in Ukraine so far, one has already been involved in an incident. How serious is this situation and how long can the Ukrainian troops defend Pokrovsk against the Russians? Colonel Markus Reisner explains to ntv.de which factors determine the intense fighting.

ntv.de: Colonel Reisner, last week you mentioned the possibility that a Western F-16 fighter jet could be the target of an attack and what serious consequences this could have. It now seems to have happened. What information is available about this incident?

Markus Reisner: There are currently different reports about the situation. First there were reports of a crash, followed by speculation about a tragic case of friendly fire by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system. However, US officials deny these claims. It is plausible that the F-16 and its pilot were either hit by a Russian cruise missile during the relentless airstrike on August 26th or due to a technical defect or a maintenance error. However, all information remains unconfirmed at the moment.

What can we learn from this incident? Is it perhaps too risky to immediately put pilots in danger after a limited training in the new system?

Judging by a miss by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense battery, it stands to reason that Ukraine is struggling to create an accurate and up-to-date air situation picture. This is called the Recognized Air Picture (RAP), a digitally networked map that monitors all air movements, including friendly and enemy, and helps for targeting.

How would an incomplete RAP affect the situation?

Serious errors can occur, including accidentally shooting down one’s own aircraft. If the pilot is responsible for the possible mishap, it could indeed be an error in operation. If the Russians are responsible, it shows their continued surveillance of Ukrainian air bases.

So far, the Kremlin seems to have made little use of the destroyed F-16 for propaganda purposes. Can you explain this pattern?

Russian social media platforms have attempted to smear the Ukrainian Air Force command by portraying the F-16’s sorties as an early stumbling block and portraying the loss of the aircraft as a Russian triumph. However, they lack concrete evidence to support their claims. There are no convincing videos of a dogfight or a visible hit on a grounded F-16, raising doubts about Russian responsibility for the loss.

In recent days, interest in Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine has increased. There are reports that many are leaving the area due to alleged Russian advances on the city. What is the current status there?

The Russians are consolidating their advance on Pokrovsk and exerting significant pressure on the city. From Kupiansk to Zaporizhzhia, they are attacking six operational maneuver groups, while two more forces are gathering near Kharkiv and Kursk. In Donbass, three of these maneuver groups form a strong coalition totaling about 150,000 troops and aiming to break through the Ukrainian defense lines. The attack on Kursk was intended to thwart the peak of the Russian summer offensive and weaken its momentum. However, their efforts were unsuccessful. Now, fierce fighting is taking place in and around Pokrovsk, a key logistics center of Ukraine and a bastion of the third line of defense.

On the Ukrainian side, there are reports of heavy fighting near Pokrovsk. What does this mean?

This refers to the lengthy, exhausting skirmishes in and around Pokrovsk, which resulted in considerable losses and only minor gains on both sides.

The Russians are gradually capturing settlements east of Pokrovsk, moving with incredible speed and inflicting relatively little damage on captured sites. Russian forces have broken into the second line of defense, creating a ripple effect: the fall of one settlement puts pressure on the flank of neighboring Ukrainian defenders, forcing them to retreat and facilitating the subsequent fall of more settlements into Russian hands. Images on social media show the brutality of the close combat, which has resulted in heavy casualties on both sides.

If Pokrovsk were captured, could the Ukrainians possibly create a barrier by cutting off this “corridor” from the north and south, thus isolating enemy troops from their supply lines or even encircling them?

They would need mobile, uncommitted reserves – troops ready for action in the immediate vicinity and in a combat-ready condition.

How do you define “combat ready” in this context?

“Combat ready” means they must be mechanized, including tanks, to have the necessary striking power. Mobilizing strategic reserves is also an option, but those troops would have to be deployed first. Ukraine has expressed its intention to recreate brigades 160-169 this year. Earlier this year, attempts were made to revive brigades 150-159, which were originally intended for an imminent offensive but were quickly redeployed to the most critical sectors of the front.

If Russian troops are still some distance from Pokrovsk, can we expect a shift to urban warfare if they manage to penetrate into built-up areas?

We have seen similar situations over the past two and a half years, including the battles of Mariupol, Lysychansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In these cases, the defenders have the advantage because they can hide and create ideal vantage points in urban environments by using hit-and-run tactics. Russia then responds with overwhelming force, wiping out entire city blocks with artillery, rocket launchers and guided munitions. And now Pokrovsk faces a similar fate.

If the Russians controlled Pokrovsk, which areas would pose the greatest challenges for the Ukrainians after the city was captured?

Is Ukraine able to protect the city against Russian attacks?

Ukraine’s ability to defend itself depends on the strength of the forces on both sides. Despite their retreat, Ukraine’s position is strengthened by the exhausted state of the Russian troops. There are no more formidable and combat-ready reserves available to the Russian aggressors and decisive points. Nevertheless, both sides are expending their resources in this battle. The one who has the longest endurance and resources will be victorious.

In the context of Kursk, where Ukraine has held Russian territory for some time, do the Russian troops stationed there have sufficient strength to repel the Russian advance?

This is a complex situation influenced by factors such as resource availability, troop morale, and each side’s strategic objectives. While Russia has deployed reinforcements to the region, the Ukrainian army has shown impressive resilience and adaptability in countering the Russian onslaught. The fate of Kursk will likely depend on the ability of both sides to maintain their offensive pressure and secure critical resources.

The Ukrainian advance in Kursk has lost momentum. We are seeing an escalation of Russian counterattacks. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are trying to build robust defensive positions by abandoning extensive open areas and capturing forests, heights or settlements. This strategy is advantageous for a defensive battle as these locations provide cover. Russian air superiority and electronic warfare pose growing challenges for the Ukrainians, who are constantly trying to remain agile and fast in Kursk.

Can Ukraine successfully consolidate its territorial gains and permanently hold these forests, heights and settlements against Russian resistance?

As in Donetsk, the outcome depends on the state of the troops on both sides. The Russians are receiving reinforcements every day, especially from the area north of Kharkiv, where Russian attacks are stalling. The Russians are systematically advancing in Kursk and Kharkiv, systematically clearing areas and targeting strategic targets with artillery and guided bombs. Their goal is to exhaust the Ukrainians. Ukraine must break out of this vicious circle, but faces a significant disadvantage: Western allies, especially the United States, restrict the deployment of advanced Western weapons technology beyond Russian lines.

Frauke Niemeyer had a conversation with Markus Reisner

1. Given the F-16 fighter jet incident in Ukraine, how might the challenge impact the country’s ability to defend its airspace and key locations like Pokrovsk, given the potential events in creating an accurate “recognized aerial picture” (RAP)?
2. Given the ongoing conflict in Pokrovsk, what role could Ukraine’s limited combat-ready reserves play in potentially disrupting Russian supply lines and potentially encircling enemy forces if the city were taken by the Russians?

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