Five things we learned in Week 1 about the race for the College Football Playoff

The first full Saturday of the college football season is over and the race for the college football playoffs is already the main topic.

Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always exaggerate in Week 1. Yes, there’s still a lot of football to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP, because every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision now starts the season with a chance to get on the field. And even one week of action was enough to shed some light on the CFP race for the rest of the game.

Here are five playoff-related lessons from Week 1.

1. Be prepared for some flat tires in December.

Lopsided results have been a common problem in the four-team CFP’s 10 years. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama against all) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several playoff games ended in debacles because the sport’s top two teams were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s opening game on neutral ground in Atlanta doubled as a test of a 12-team era, as the SEC’s No. 1 favorite faced off against one of the ACC’s top teams, No. 14.

The result: a 34-3 loss in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 points in the second half. Georgia looks as good as everyone thought it would. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not making the playoffs for the third time in four years, whether as SEC champions or one of the seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, Texas in mid-October and Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses will likely make the field anyway. That fact may one day take some of the luster off these high-profile, nonconference tests of the regular season, but that’s the price paid to ensure more universal access to the championship in an expanded playoff. And if this Georgia team faces another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in the early rounds in December, the talent difference could lead to ugly final results like the one we saw on Saturday.

Clemson, on the other hand, showed the same offensive issues it did a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender after Saturday’s performance. Still, the 12-team format means the season isn’t over for any Power 4 conference team after Week 1. All Clemson needs to do is win the ACC to secure a spot. And that still seems doable, because…

2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.

With the ACC league headquarters battling Florida State and Clemson in court as the two members continue to try to extricate themselves from the conference’s transfer-rights agreement, it would have been beneficial for the ACC to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the realignment rumors in the background. The league entered the season full of optimism, thanks to seven teams in the top 30 of the AP poll (three of which finished just outside the top 25).

Instead, it was a rough first week for the league’s supposed top team. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Week 0 in Ireland, Clemson was crushed by Georgia on Saturday, popular underdog Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.

But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer additions. That’s what you pay for. It’s only a week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and plays Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular candidate for the CFP. The rest of the league will have to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.

Miami is 1-0 with this remaining schedule 👀 pic.twitter.com/dgNAH1eudJ

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) 31 August 2024

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3. Penn State looks like a real contender.

When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State seemed to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions have finished in the top 12 six times since 2016, but have never made the four-team CFP field.

That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win at West Virginia. The defense was physical and tough as ever, but the offense was explosive and, dare I say, exciting after drawing meme-worthy ridicule last year for its unwillingness to attack vertically. The Nittany Lions had two passes of at least 50 yards on Saturday after managing just five last season. Quarterback Drew Allar completed 11 of 17 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road, which wasn’t the case last year.

It’s still early, but Penn State looked like a team that might not quite make the CFP, but will win a game or two.

4. Notre Dame already has a good path to the playoffs.

As an independent, the Fighting Irish cannot play for a conference championship, and since the top four spots in the expanded CFP go to the top four ranked conference champions, even a No. 1 seed Notre Dame team at the end of the season would not get a first-round bye. However, the additional at-large bids in the expanded field greatly increase the Irish’s chances of making the playoffs, and after a season-opening 23-13 win over Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be a clear favorite to qualify.

It’s very likely that Notre Dame will be the favorite in every game left on the schedule: The toughest games remaining are likely at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to end the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still enter the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has playoff expectations this year and Saturday’s win was a huge step toward that goal. A momentous win in Week 1 increases their margin for error that much more.

5. The Group of 5 favourites have escaped some scares and are facing major Power 4 tests.

The new stakes for the Group of 5 were immediately apparent when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s highest-ranked conference champion, trailed in the fourth quarter on the road against Georgia Southern. The Broncos rallied and won 56-45 thanks to 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, defending their top-seed status in the Mountain West and boosting Jeanty’s draft value. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which had to hold on to survive a surprise bid from FCS Idaho.

Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State was only seven points ahead of East Tennessee State deep into the third quarter, but eventually won 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers is a trip to Clemson.

Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell well into the second quarter and was only ahead by 10 points early in the fourth quarter, but eventually won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, on the other hand, had no trouble in a 40-0 win over FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The performance records of these teams and their conferences will be scrutinized throughout the fall.

(Photo: Jack Gorman/Getty Images)