Study links gentrification to falling crime, but the dark side of gentrification cannot be ignored

According to a study by the University at Buffalo, gentrification of Buffalo neighborhoods was associated with a decline in property crime between 2011 and 2019, independent of an overall decline in similar crimes citywide during the same years.

The results published in the journal PLOS One could help urban planners and policymakers who must balance issues such as neighborhood improvement and crime. However, the study’s authors point out that gentrification often has multiple consequences and that the far-reaching effects of the process require careful consideration before direct action is taken.

“If managed well, gentrification could be part of a strategy to make neighborhoods safer,” says Zhe Zhang, a sociology graduate student in the UB College of Arts and Sciences and lead author of the study. “However, it is important to emphasize that gentrification is a complex issue and that the countervailing effects of crime reduction must be considered alongside potentially negative consequences such as displacement of long-time residents.”

Since the 1990s, gentrification, the immigration of a new middle class after a period of economic decline, has transformed many urban landscapes in the United States.

However, most research on gentrification has been conducted in large cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. Because findings from these large cities are not necessarily generalizable to smaller cities, Zhang and study co-author Dr. Ashley Barr, associate professor of sociology at UB, expanded on this previous work and focused on Buffalo, a mid-sized city.

Buffalo, a typical Rust Belt city, prospered in the early 20th century but then experienced high unemployment and population loss in the 1980s, followed by a surge in development starting around 2010, driven by government-funded projects and private investment. In addition to these changes, Buffalo has become a destination for refugees and migrants over the past 20 years.

“By studying neighborhoods in cities like Buffalo, we can examine gentrification in a place that continues to experience economic hardship while exhibiting the hallmarks of gentrification,” Zhang says. “Buffalo’s unique experience with gentrification despite its ongoing economic hardships offers insights that are applicable to other, older industrial cities seeking revitalization.”

The current study, which was based on census and Buffalo police data, also differed from previous work in that it did not look at gentrification as a standalone process. Previous studies focused on differences between gentrified and non-gentrified areas, but Zhang and Barr also examined changing crime rates within neighborhoods as they undergo gentrification.

They examined 79 different census tracts – areas with populations of 1,200 to 8,000 – in the years before and after gentrification.

“This approach helps clarify whether changes in crime rates are due to gentrification itself or to other factors,” says Zhang.

Neighborhoods that ultimately become gentrified differ in some ways from neighborhoods that are at risk but not gentrified, according to Barr.

“Although both are disadvantaged, this is even more true for the latter. It is important to consider these pre-existing differences if we want to say that gentrification matters for crime. Our multi-pronged approach achieves this by looking at two differences – those between gentrified and never-gentrified neighborhoods, and the changes over time within the same neighborhood,” says Barr.

The results were the same across all approaches in the study: gentrification was associated with a reduction in crime.

“Although this study does not directly address policy changes and their impacts, plausible solutions could include affordable housing programs, community engagement efforts, and economic support for long-time residents to ensure that the benefits of gentrification, such as reduced crime, do not come at the expense of the most vulnerable populations,” Zhang says.

This study is a first step toward understanding the impact of gentrification on crime in mid-sized cities, but more work is needed.

“We encourage qualitative research – stories from people in these areas – as well as quantitative research like ours to better understand the underlying reasons for the link between gentrification and crime, as well as other positive and negative impacts of the process,” Zhang says.