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topicnews · August 29, 2024

Forecast models predict an active start to September

Forecast models predict an active start to September

Two Atlantic systems we featured in our Wednesday newsletter are expected to see further developments next week as forecast models suggest an active start to September.

Rain delays have been occurring in the tropical Atlantic since Hurricane Ernesto moved out nine days ago, but players are back on the field and forecasts suggest official play will resume next week.

The system approaching the Caribbean early next week must be observed

The first system we will track is a disturbance currently located over the central Atlantic, embedded in a broad band of storms extending from Africa across the Atlantic, called the monsoon trough.

By late weekend, the disturbance is expected to break free of its monsoon umbilical cord and move westward toward the easternmost Caribbean islands. Models indicate slow development east of the islands, with a risk that an organized tropical system (tropical depression or tropical storm) could move through parts of the Lesser Antilles sometime late next Monday or Tuesday.

Low pressure areas will move through the nightly run of the European model ensemble system until next Monday evening (September 2nd). Since yesterday, the models have shown a tendency for the system to develop further. Source: Weathernerds.org.

We need to give the system time to develop before we have a more accurate idea of ​​how well organized it might be before it reaches the islands, but anyone with interests in the Eastern Caribbean should monitor the forecast closely in the coming days.

Starting early next week, models show an increasingly favorable environment for the system to organize as it moves deeper into the Caribbean. Given the forecast trends, we should not be surprised to see a strengthening tropical system near or south of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti next Wednesday and Thursday.

The probability that at least one tropical storm (with wind speeds of at least 63 km/h) will pass a specific location within 240-320 km next Wednesday and Thursday (September 4-5) is based on the nightly run of the European model ensemble system. Source: Weathermodels.com.

Given the uncertainty about where the system will ultimately attempt to form, it is far too early to speculate about a threat beyond the middle of next week. For now, let’s just watch how things play out over the next week.

Unrest could break out off Africa next week

A large tropical wave rolling into the Atlantic off Africa also promises to develop next week.

As we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, this is the first strong tropical wave to spill into the Atlantic south of Cape Verde in some time, under drier, more stable air that is undermining the unusually northward-moving waves of recent weeks.

Because the disturbance is large, it will likely take some time to organize, and it will not reach the central Atlantic until the middle of next week. We still have plenty of time to monitor it.

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