2024 Iowa State football season predictions – Iowa State Daily

Record predictions

Sports Editor Brett Twelmeyer: 8-4

We covered this on the Sports Weekly Podcast the other day. Give it a listen if you haven’t already. But, I will say Utah, West Virginia, Iowa and the Kansas schools are the toughest games on the calendar. I’ll take one of the Kansas schools as a win. The rest, not so much. I’d like to say 10 wins, but that seems unlikely.

Assistant Sports Editor Pavle Markovic: 8-4

Last season, when I predicted Iowa State’s record, I was definitely too low on the team. From my perspective, I felt that last season was supposed to be more of a transition year following the loss of players from the gambling investigation and just seniors who left in general. But it was one of the things where I was glad to be wrong. This team showed us the potential it has and even went as far as to contend for the Big 12 championship game at one point.

Now a new season dawns upon the Cyclones with high hopes to compete in a larger conference. So, unlike last year, I will be having Iowa State finish on the right side of .500, as I have them going 8-4 this season. I kind of discussed my reasons why for having this record in the recent Sports Weekly podcast, which if you haven’t seen yet I’d highly recommend you give it a watch. But for my four losses, I have the Cyclones falling to Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas and Utah.

Sports Reporter Cayden Storm: 10-2

Last season, I was way too low on this team. This year, I am probably way too high on this team. Unlike my fellow sports deskmates, I have some confidence that this team can win big games this year. I don’t think the Cyclones lose to Iowa, who still have no offense. I don’t think the Cyclones will lose to Kansas once the fans turn Arrowhead Stadium into Jack Trice West. Utah and Kansas State will both be very tough, though, I must admit. It would make the Cyclones underdogs in those games, but in every other game, I like their odds.

Potential upset win

Twelmeyer: Kansas

It’s odd calling Kansas a potential upset win, but here we are. Iowa State has a multi-game losing streak to the Jayhawks for the first time in nearly two decades, even though it is just two games. Given that this game is actually at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, I can see Cyclone fans making the trip to motivate the team toward a potential upset.

Markovic: Iowa

It still bugs me that Iowa State will almost certainly never be favored against Iowa in football just because of the past these two teams have had against each other. As it currently stands, the CyHawk football series is in favor of the Hawkeyes 47-23. A pretty massive margin that Iowa has controlled since the series began in 1894.

However, we focus back to the present where the Cyclones will travel to Iowa City to try and defeat the Hawkeyes in their stadium for the second time in a row. The last time that Iowa State took down Iowa in Iowa City was back in 2022, when the rainy conditions led to a close 10-7 win by the Cyclones. These types of games tend to be closely contested when the in-state rivals collide, so if Iowa State can sustain drives on offense against a stout Iowa defense, they might just recreate what they did back in 2022, minus the rain.

Storm: Iowa

Did Iowa State lose to Iowa last season? Yes. Has Iowa State lost seven out of the last eight games in this series? Yes. Does any of that matter this season? Absolutely not. 

In my opinion, last season’s loss came down to the offense not being quite ready. While Iowa’s defense was elite last year and will be elite this year, I think the Cyclones’ offense is ready this year. Rocco Becht, with another season of experience under his belt, will be a completely different player than he was in last season’s Iowa game and I think that’s what will give Iowa State the edge in this season’s game.

Toughest matchup

Twelmeyer: West Virginia

Don’t get me wrong, Utah is the toughest opponent, but when it comes to where the games line up on the schedule, this game sticks out to me. It is not the first conference road game for Iowa State this season, but it is the first against a quality opponent. 

Last season, West Virginia flew under the radar to an 8-4 record and a win over UNC in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. This has the potential to be Iowa State’s first conference loss of the season.

Markovic: Utah

The one team that Iowa State will play this season that comes from the collapsing Pac-12 conference is the Utah Utes. It just so happens that Utah has also come out as one of the teams projected to finish atop the Big 12 this upcoming season. With their No. 12 ranking in the recent AP polls, the Utes are looking to make a name for themselves in a new conference.

Shifting back toward the actual game that will occur later in the season, the Cyclones will be traveling to Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on Utah. By this point, we will know where both teams stand within the conference, so this game has the potential to be a game of the week. But just looking at what the Utes have to offer, mainly with their starting quarterback Cameron Rising coming back from injury, I just have a hard time finding a way to have Iowa State take down a potential conference contender.

Storm: Kansas State

As everyone can tell, I am very high on this team. I believe that the Cyclones will experience a lot of success this season. But with success comes pressure. Not only could Kansas State be the toughest team on the schedule, but I believe that this game could decide who plays in the Big 12 championship game. 

Having the chance to go to a conference championship alone is big, but knowing that all you would have to do is win that conference championship game to make the playoffs makes the moment even bigger. The hype would be out of control and the pressure would be enormous. That’s why I think this will be the toughest matchup of the season. 

Offensive Player of the Year

Twelmeyer: Abu Sama III

Remember the Kansas State game last season? I do. Behind an offensive line full of returners, Sama has the opportunity to carve through defenses with ease. In 2023, Sama averaged 7.3 yards per carry but was limited to less than 10 carries in nine of the 11 games he played in. Now, being the true top running back, Sama is destined for a big year.

Markovic: Jayden Higgins

Going back to the start of last season, Jayden Higgins entered this program with an already established wide receiver in Jaylin Noel but did not have a clear number two spot right behind Noel in the depth chart. To his credit, Higgins did establish himself as one of the best receivers on the team as he led the team with 983 yards receiving, just 17 shy of reaching that 1,000-yard mark.

Now we enter this season, where Higgins has started to become the conversation as the number one receiver on the team, even with Noel having a good year in 2023. So, for this season, my prediction is that Higgins does reach that 1,000-yard receiving mark while being the biggest weapon that quarterback Rocco Becht has to work with.

Storm: Rocco Becht

Last season Becht threw for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns. That was good for fourth and second for a single season in Iowa State history. This year, he’ll be even better. 

Becht didn’t even know he would be the starter late into the offseason last year. With a full offseason of being the unquestioned starter, I doubt he will start as slow as he did last year. He’ll get the full playbook and have full confidence from the coaching staff from the start of the season for the first time in his career. I wouldn’t be shocked if he challenges any of Brock Purdy’s single-season passing records.

Defensive Player of the Year

Twelmeyer: Myles Purchase

Filling the role of T.J. Tampa, who was drafted to the Baltimore Ravens after last season, Purchase is expected to be one of the leaders of this defense. The stats don’t lie. He is an outstanding player, considering he had 56 tackles with at least five in six games and he recorded 15 pass break-ups, putting him fourth nationally and second in the Big 12.

Markovic: Jeremiah Cooper

While I won’t take all the credit for Cooper’s success last season, I kind of did pick the one defensive sleeper to watch that turned out to be a potential superstar for this Iowa State team. Even from the get-go, Cooper’s talent flashed in many ways in his first game of the 2023 season against Northern Iowa, where he had two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. This game only began to put him on notice, as Cooper went as high as to finish as a member of the first team all-Big 12 with a Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week nomination under his belt.

But now going into his junior year, Cooper will continue to put himself on the biggest stage by making the big plays when they are needed the most. This season, I could see Cooper even outdo his breakout season last year by putting up big numbers in the interception department along with breaking up a multitude of passes that are thrown at him.

Storm: Caleb Bacon

Bacon had a breakout season for the Cyclones last season and there’s no reason to think he won’t be even better this season. Bacon was one of the best linebackers in the Big 12 last year and wasn’t even a starter last season. Now, as a full-time starter, his numbers will only improve with the expanded role. I think he could be first-team All-Big 12 at the season’s end. 

Newcomer of the Year

Twelmeyer: Isaiah Alston

In his three seasons at Army, Alston led the Black Knights in receiving yards every time. Last season, he did it while playing in only four games. He also did it with an average of 15.6 catches and 328 yards per season. The 6-foot, 4-inch vertical threat should find even more success on an offense that throws the ball more than his previous one.

Markovic: Kenard Snyder

Snyder has intrigued me right from when he committed to Iowa State to play football for the Cyclones this season and even beyond. In his two seasons with Louisana-Monroe, Snyder showed flashes of a potential star pass rusher as he finished with 6.5 sacks along with making 119 total tackles. With the entire Iowa State team only getting 24 total sacks in 2023, I think Snyder can improve that number to 30 and maybe beyond barring his first season in a bigger conference.

Storm: Eli Green

Green, a North Dakota State transfer, led the Bison in all-purpose yards with 1,197 and receiving yards with 877. Green also has familiarity with wide receivers coach Noah Pauley, who coached the wide receiver group at North Dakota State while Green was there. 

With Daniel Jackson suffering a season-ending leg injury, someone will have to step up as the number three receiver and I think Green could be the one to do it.

Hot takes

Twelmeyer: The non-conference games, in the grand scheme of things, don’t matter

In this new world of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, there is an added emphasis on winning a conference championship. Conference champions make up five of the 12 spots, meaning there are just seven at-large bids. Not to mention that conference champions are auto-bids, too. Want to make the Playoff? The best bet is to dominate conference play. Otherwise, hope a group of people think you are one of the seven best-of-the-rest.

So, how does one win a conference championship? Not by winning non-conference games. Sure, those games help set the tone for the season and can be good tests, but the conference games matter more, especially now with the 12-team Playoff.

Markovic: Iowa State goes undefeated or ends up with one or two losses

I know it sounds like a really hot take, but in all honesty, it’s not crazy to say that this Iowa State team could reach the level of being potentially an unbeaten team this season. Now, I know that the Cyclones have never even reached the double-digit mark in wins throughout their long history, but with the talent and potential that this roster has, that mark can be achieved and maybe even beyond that.

When you do a deeper dive into Iowa State’s schedule this season, the home schedule doesn’t have a lot of teams that scream contenders or at least just pretty good. The toughest home game for the Cyclones doesn’t come until the last game of the season against Kansas State, and Iowa State beat them last season in Manhattan, Kansas. The biggest part of the potential record-setting season comes on the road, where each and every game has the potential to be a close, competitive match.

Storm: Iowa State wins 10 games for the first time in program history

I may have spoiled this hot take during my record prediction, but I am confident that this will be the year that Iowa State finally wins 10 games. When you really think about it, this may not be that hot of a take. Maybe just a warm one. 

Let’s take a look at the Cyclones’ schedule. At home, they play North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor, UCF, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Kansas State. I think the Cyclones will be favored in six out of seven in those games, with Kansas State being the only opponent that would likely be favored. So let’s say chalk holds and Iowa State goes 6-1 at home.

On the road, the Cyclones play Iowa, Houston, West Virginia, Utah and Kansas. Iowa State will be favored against Houston, West Virginia and Kansas will be toss-ups, with Utah and Iowa going into the matchup as favorites. All the Cyclones have to do is beat Houston, win both of the toss-up games and split the Iowa and Utah games. It sounds hard, but I think Iowa State can do it.