Brandon “Breakout” Pfaadt is looking forward to the start of the must-win series against the Mets

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at Chase Field to begin a must-win series against the New York Mets tonight. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. Arizona time as the D-backs will look to win their seventh straight game.

The Diamondbacks swept both the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox last week, winning six straight games and are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They hold the top spot in the NL Wild Card.

They are one game ahead of the Padres, four games ahead of the Braves and seven games ahead of the Mets. They have a run differential of +92, the fourth-highest in the National League.

The D-backs are the only team in MLB to score 700 or more runs so far this season (701), and they average 5.35 runs per game, leading the MLB.

They are 19 games over .500, the most since 2017. Still, they are three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. This week is an important one for both teams, as the Dodgers face the D-backs in a four-game series later this week.

RHP Brandon Pfaadt, 8-6, 4.08 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 139 strikeouts in 150 innings

It might appear that Brandon Pfaadt is struggling or getting tired lately after pitching a lot in his first full MLB season, looking at his ERA of 5.46 in his last five starts and 29.2 innings.

However, he has pitched six or more innings three times and earned the win in four of those games, mostly due to the offense but also because Pfaadt limited the damage and kept the team in the game. He’s walking a tightrope but has managed to hang on so far.

He rocked the strike zone, allowing just 31 batters to walk, a 1.9 percentage, which is a strong showing. Pfaadt was much better at home, posting a 3.69 ERA, nearly half a run less than his regular ERA, over 68.1 innings. During that span, he allowed 66 batters to strikeout and 11 walks, while allowing 28 earned runs.

The key to Pfaadt’s success today is to put his sweeper on the edges of the zone and put his fastball around the zone. He can’t put too many fastballs right in the middle of the plate like he used to because the Mets would destroy them. If he can do that, he can be successful tonight in a must-win game.

To make the news even more exciting, in the 17.2 innings Jose Herrera has caught him this year, he has a 1.53 ERA and opponents have posted a .191 batting average against him in those innings.

Left-hander Sean Manaea, 9-5, 3.48 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 138 strikeouts in 137 innings

Manaea has been one of the Mets’ best pitchers this year, especially in his last five starts. He went seven innings in four of his last five starts, pitching 31 innings with a 2.61 ERA. He allowed just 20 hits and seven walks, and had 37 strikeouts.

He already faced the D-backs once this year, on June 1, when he struck out ten hitters in 5.2 innings, but allowed six runs and six hits.

He had trouble controlling his pitches at times, allowing 52 batters to walk and 14 home runs.

Manaea has reversed platoon splits this year, as lefties have hit him far better than righties. Righties have hit just .201 with an OPS of .610. Meanwhile, lefties have hit .262 with an OPS of .747 against him.

The left-hander has been better away from home this year, posting a strong ERA of 3.09 with 52 hits, 29 walks and 55 strikeouts in 12 games and 64 innings.

One area where Manaea has struggled is with runners in scoring position (RISP). With RISP, he allowed a batting average of .237 and an OPS of .703.

Manaea throws five pitches, but there are four that need to be known if the D-backs want to have success. They need to leave out his sweeper and four-seamer. His sweeper has only a .182 batting average and the four-seamer has limited hitters to just a .178 batting average.

However, his sinker and changeup can be hit. While his sinker only has a .221 average, his expected batting average is .257. His changeup has been hit hard at .282 and has been hit with a .411 slugging percentage. The Diamondbacks batters will have to hunt and wait for those throws to be more successful.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back in the lineup after sitting out early in Sunday’s game. He has been excellent against left-handed pitchers this year. Against lefties, he’s batted .336 and has an OPS of .870. He’s posted a .500 batting average with nine doubles and five home runs against them.

Additionally, he has performed excellently at bat over the last 14 games, with a batting average of .383 and an OPS of .975. In those 14 games, he has had seven two-hit games.

In 15 at-bats against Manaea, Randal Grichuk has two home runs and two RBIs and has a .375 batting average against him. Additionally, Grichuk has a .764 OPS against left-handed pitchers this year.

Eugenio Suarez has been on a roll since July 2, leading the MLB in RBIs with 47 since then. He has hit two home runs in his last three games and also had 10 RBIs during that span. In 46 games since July 2, he has a .309 batting average with 54 hits, 15 doubles and 14 home runs.

Suarez has been far better at Chase Field, with a .265 average and an .827 OPS. Geraldo Perdomo has also been pitching well recently in August. In 22 games, he has a .325 batting average with a .925 OPS and 26 hits, seven doubles, three home runs, 10 RBIs and nine walks with just 14 strikeouts.