Why does the BJP want to change the election date in Haryana?

The state party of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has asked the Election Commission of India (ECI) to postpone the polling date in Haryana, fearing that a long weekend would affect voter turnout. The Congress accused the BJP of fearing defeat and using the request as an excuse to postpone the election. In response, the BJP has said it is ready to hold elections on any day. The Indian Lok Dal (INLD) has also supported the BJP’s demand for a postponement.

The ECI’s state office has forwarded the request to Delhi and is awaiting a response. Haryana is scheduled to vote on October 1 (Tuesday), along with the third and final phase of the polls in Jammu and Kashmir. The results are expected to be announced on October 4.

Long weekends

Since 28 and 29 September are weekends and 2 and 3 October are holidays (for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti and Maharaja Agrasen Jayanti), a person taking a holiday on 30 September can enjoy a six-day break, including Election Day, which is also a holiday.

Haryana’s urbanisation rate was 28.9% as per the 2011 census, a figure that has likely increased with the expansion of the National Capital Region (NCR). Fourteen districts of Haryana are part of the NCR, including major urban centres such as Gurugram, Faridabad, Rohtak, Sonipat and Bhiwani.

The BJP traditionally does well in urban areas. Some of these cities also have a high proportion of migrants who could use the extended break to visit their homes, potentially negatively impacting the BJP’s performance. Historically, voter turnout in parliamentary elections has been higher in rural areas than in urban areas, although the difference has changed over the years.

In the 2024 general election, rural voter turnout was 67.9% compared to 57.9% in urban areas. While rural turnout declined by about 3 percentage points compared to 2019, urban turnout declined by about 7 percentage points. In 2024, voter turnout fluctuated during four weekend phases, with two phases seeing an increase and the other two seeing a decrease.

Concerns about voter turnout

The BJP admits that lower voter turnout has had a negative impact on its performance in the 2024 general elections. The lack of enthusiasm among key politicians, workers and supporters contributed to the party’s failure to secure a majority, according to Uttar Pradesh’s internal poll report.

High voter turnout is crucial to the BJP’s success. From 1996 to 2019, the BJP formed the central government five times, with higher voter turnout in four of those cases. Although it boasts of being the largest party in the world and has a network of panna pramukhs (each representing 30 voters), the BJP fears that this advantage could be eroded if some voters choose to holiday rather than vote.

In response to the BJP’s demand, the Congress dismissed the concerns as a sign of nervousness. Deepender Hooda posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the BJP’s request for a postponement was a pretext to delay the elections as it lacks substantive issues, achievements or candidates for all 90 seats.

Limited scope

The BJP has sought postponement of the elections and suggested a change in the polling date or an extension of the voting period. Since October 2 and 3 are holidays and October 4 is reserved for the declaration of results, the entire election process in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana must be completed by October 6. There is limited scope for postponing the elections; if the ECI considers a change, it may have to advance the polling date, which the BJP would likely oppose.

The election is shaping up to be highly polarized: Jats, a dominant social group in the state, support the Congress while non-Jats support the BJP. In the 2024 general election, the BJP won all five Lok Sabha seats in non-Jat-dominated areas. The party is strong in urban regions such as Faridabad, Ambala and Gurugram and won 22 of its 40 seats in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections.

Urban-rural divide

The BJP fears that some voters may use the long weekends to take vacations, which could affect voter turnout. This situation underscores the growing urban-rural inequality in India, as urban voters are more likely to be able to afford a vacation than their rural constituents.

In Haryana, Jats, who are predominantly farmers, are disillusioned with the central government’s response to their protests. The Congress party is working to forge an alliance between Jats, Dalits and Muslims in rural areas. The loss of five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 compared to 2019 suggests that the BJP is on the defensive.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was ahead in 44 constituencies, while the Congress party was ahead in 42 and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in four. In 2019, the BJP was ahead in 79 constituencies but won only 40 in the subsequent Vidhan Sabha elections held six months later. As the party will now complete ten years in power, it wants to address all potential issues, including the election date, to ensure a favourable outcome.

It remains to be seen whether the EBI will comply with this request.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his previous role, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author