What the polls show about Tim Walz and JD Vance ahead of Tuesday’s vice presidential debate

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio is less popular with voters than his Democratic rival, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Both Vance and Walz entered the spotlight this summer as relatively unknown politicians. As both candidates prepare to speak to large audiences at the vice presidential debate next week, Democrats are more positive about Walz and Vice President Kamala Harris than Republicans are about Vance and former President Donald Trump.

The results of the new poll confirm that Republicans face a difficult task in more and more states ahead of the presidential election campaign.

The poll shows that negative feelings toward Vance are far more widespread than positive opinions. About half of registered voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion of Vance, up from about 4 in 10 in late July, while about a quarter have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of him and a similar share do not know enough to have an opinion of him.

Walz, on the other hand, is more popular. About 3 in 10 voters have a negative opinion of Walz, while about 4 in 10 have a positive opinion and about 3 in 10 don’t know enough to say anything.

This difference in popularity extends to the candidates’ voter bases, with about 7 in 10 Democratic voters having a favorable opinion of Walz, compared to about 6 in 10 Republican voters who have a favorable opinion of Vance.

Democratic candidates tend to get more support from women, while Republicans do better with men. This gap is evident in the popularity ratings of Trump and Harris – but Walz is more popular than Vance among both men and women.

About 4 in 10 male and female voters have a favorable opinion of Walz, while about 3 in 10 men and about a quarter of women have a favorable opinion of Vance.

Walz also has a popularity advantage over Vance among voters over 60. Half of voters in this group have a somewhat or very positive opinion of Walz, while about three in ten have a similar opinion of Vance.

Despite his strength over Vance in some areas, there are also some key Democratic groups where Walz still has work to do. About three-quarters of black adults have a positive opinion of Harris, while about half say the same about Walz. Women also view her more positively; about three in 10 women don’t know enough about Walz to form an opinion.

Overall, however, neither vice presidential candidate is outperforming Harris or Trump among major demographics, and they are still less well-known than the presidential candidates, even among groups that are traditionally part of each party’s base. For example, about a quarter of white voters without a college degree don’t know enough about Vance, and about four in 10 voters ages 18 to 29 have no opinion of Walz.

This means that their popularity could continue to change as their national exposure increases.

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The poll of 1,771 registered voters was conducted September 12-16, 2024, using a sample from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.