Analysis of the Atlanta Braves playoff situation with six games to go

It’s going to be exciting. With six games left in the regular season, the Atlanta Braves are still neck and neck.

After the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 3-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants on Monday night, they are one and a half games back from a playoff spot.

Next up is a key series against the New York Mets, who have the second wild card by two games, before the final series of the season against the Kansas City Royals. All games will be played in Atlanta, so the Braves can play the rest of the game in front of their home crowd.

Tiebreaker scenarios (as of September 24)

As a reminder to everyone, MLB no longer plays a tiebreaker game. Game 163 is not an option. If the teams are tied after 162 games, a tiebreaker formula will be used to determine who advances.

The two most important deciding factors are head-to-head and intra-division record, which is your record against teams in your division. The upcoming schedule influences both.

The San Diego Padres have the edge in the head-to-head comparison, ahead of the Braves. They have won four of seven games this season. However, the Padres are irrelevant at this point. The Braves would have to win and the Padres would have to lose.

Meanwhile, the Braves hold the tiebreaker against the Diamondbacks. They have won five of seven games this season. Let’s say both teams finish the season with 89 wins – the Braves win four of six and the DBacks lose four of five. The Braves are in. The DBacks are out.

One tiebreaker is still up for grabs. The Braves and Mets are tied in their season series — both have five wins. Whoever wins the final series this week has the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Braves can also even the intra-division tiebreaker with a sweep. Both teams would be 29-23 against NL East teams. Although the Braves would be ahead of the Mets at that point, it provides an additional safety net.

Key statistics that improve the Braves’ chances

The home advantage will benefit the Braves. They have a winning percentage of .560 at home compared to a win rate of 0.531 away.

With a 50-40 record, they are also excellent against teams with a record above .500. The Mets, meanwhile, are exactly .500 (45-45).

The Royals are 47-55 against teams over .500 in a meltdown and are just 37-38 on the road. That’s not helping them recover from their seven-game losing streak. The Braves are also dominating their American League opponents. They have an interleague record of 29-14. The interleague play has saved their season and they have a last-minute chance to make the postseason.

The Braves also have a favorable schedule because of their record against winning teams. The Mets have to play the Brewers on the road to end the year. The Diamondbacks have to play the Padres.

Even though they’re behind, the Braves are in full control of their playoff hopes. Win your games and you’re in.