November elections could shape Puerto Rico’s future

November 5 is approaching and all eyes are on the presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. That day will also mark elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, governors and state legislatures, and several referendums.

Perhaps it is understandable that the upcoming election in Puerto Rico goes unnoticed. Nevertheless, it deserves our attention.

This fall, Puerto Ricans will vote not only on who will form their government, but also on what exactly that government will be. In addition to elections for governor, resident commissioner, Senate, House of Representatives and mayoralty, Puerto Rico will hold a referendum in which voters can choose between independence, U.S. statehood or a new form of self-government. The outcome will help determine what Puerto Rico is in relation to the U.S., but also what the United States is in relation to Puerto Rico – a colonial power or a leading democracy.

Many Americans are only vaguely aware of Puerto Rico’s status. For many, it remains a colony, often referred to as the “oldest colony in the world.” Puerto Rico officially became part of New Spain in 1521, when imperial rule from Madrid was replaced by that of Washington in 1898.

Puerto Rico is commonly viewed as less than a state. Its residents cannot vote in presidential elections, do not cast ballots, or send electors through the Electoral College, and its elected resident commissioner is limited to a nonvoting role in the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2016, financial problems led to the creation of an oversight board to restructure the island’s economy. And in 2017, the island again felt neglected as the federal government’s response to the impact of Hurricane Maria was limited.

However, Puerto Rico can also be considered a state that enjoys territorial autonomy, with a special self-government for this minority nation. Puerto Rico has its own political parties, Spanish-language education and administration, its own weights and measures, its own National Guard, and is a member of international organizations. Puerto Rico participates separately in the Olympics and other sporting events. It has elements of a country, but also some of the benefits of belonging to the United States in terms of security and labor migration.

Puerto Rican politicians have called this “the best of both worlds.” Although the degree of self-government has decreased since 2016, Puerto Rico remains an important example of territorial autonomy, similar to Quebec in Canada, Scotland in the United Kingdom or Catalonia in Spain.

Within Puerto Rico, the island’s political status is a key political dividing line: while the New Progressive Party (Partido Nuevo Progresista) aims for Puerto Rico to become a U.S. state, the Popular Democratic Party (Partido Popular Democrático) favors the current Commonwealth system. A third party that advocates independence has little electoral support. Those who want Puerto Rico to become a state frame this in terms of voting rights and economic benefits. Critics fear that becoming the 51st state would dilute the island’s unique identity and make it just another state in an English-speaking union.

The 2024 referendum will include three options: free association, statehood, or independence. As with any referendum, wording will play a large role. Clearly, Puerto Ricans do not currently support independence, as polls and previous referendums show. It is also clear that Puerto Ricans are unhappy with the status quo, especially since 2016. The party that supports statehood is mired in scandals and is seen as supporting the referendum to increase voter turnout and divert attention from their expected losses in November.

Much depends on whether voters understand “free association” as the status quo or as a form of expanded, more significant self-government. The details of a revised free association are still unclear and are to be negotiated later if the vote is successful. However, as voters in other autonomous regions such as Scotland in the UK or South Tyrol in Italy have shown, greater self-government is usually the more popular option compared to incorporation or independence.

This is the latest in a series of votes on Puerto Rico’s political status. It follows a non-binding referendum in 2020 in which 52.52 percent of the vote was in favor of becoming a U.S. state, while 47.48 percent voted against. However, the Trump administration did not approve the referendum, and Congress, which has the power to grant state status, has not acted on it. This year will be different, as the Biden administration supports Puerto Rico’s ability to make decisions, and if Democrats are victorious in the presidential and legislative elections, it is possible that the U.S. government will finally listen to Puerto Rican voters.

Although the referendum is not binding, its implications are not insignificant. A strong response in favor of redefining Puerto Rico – either becoming a U.S. state or expanding its powers as a special state – will be significant for Puerto Rico. The option of a new form of free association has the potential to overcome old debates about statehood, status quo or independence.

The outcome will also be significant for the United States. Ignoring the referendum result will reinforce the impression that the United States is a colonial power indifferent to the island and its people. When Puerto Ricans raise their voices this fall, Congress should do the same and reaffirm its status as a leading democracy, regardless of who becomes president in 2025.

Shane Barter is Professor of Comparative Politics at Soka University of America. His current book project analyzes the many forms and contested nature of territorial autonomy.

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