Polls suggest that Harris’ economic policies are influencing voters. That could hurt Trump.

It is one of the eternal mysteries of American politics: Despite the irrefutable evidence that the economy performs better in almost every way under Democratic presidents, a large portion of voters remain convinced that Republicans manage the economy better. But if recent polls are correct, hopes are breaking through. In several recent polls, Vice President Kamala Harris has almost equalized former President Donald Trump’s lead on the question of which candidate is better for the economy. If that result holds, it could be fatal to his chances of retaking the White House. It would be nice if this change were proof of voters’ rationality and strong economic understanding. But that is not the case.

In the latest NBC News poll — with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points — voters give Trump a 50-41 lead on “handling the economy.” That 9-point deficit may not sound like good news to Harris until you learn that Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden on that question was more than 20 points earlier this year.

Other polls have shown even better results for Harris. A CBS News/YouGov poll found Trump leading just 53 to 47 among those who say the economy is an important factor in their vote. A Fox News poll found Trump 5 points ahead of Harris on that criterion. An AP-NORC poll found Trump only 2 points ahead of Harris on who voters trust on economic issues. A Quinnipiac poll in swing states found a similar gap. A Morning Consult poll found the two tied on the same question. And a Financial Times/University of Michigan poll found Harris leading by 2 points. (The CBS result is outside the margin of error, while all other poll results are within the margin of error of those polls.)

While the numbers vary somewhat, the overall trend is clear: Voters are much more positive on economic issues than they used to be—which is a huge win for Harris. Before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was outperforming him on these economic issues, even though Biden’s economic management was worlds ahead of Trump’s.

Trump’s lead at the start of the year is due to a combination of amnesia, delusions and the widespread belief that the 81-year-old Biden simply wouldn’t be cut out for the job in a second term. Voters have somehow forgotten how Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic deepened the inevitable downturn and complicated recovery from it.

The former president may like to ask, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” But the appropriate answer would be, “Are you kidding me?” Four years ago, the economy had lost ten million jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was still at 7.8 percent (today it is 4.2 percent). And even before the pandemic, Trump was allowing the budget deficit to soar by cutting taxes for the rich – something the Republicans apparently care about.

Even if you want to blame Trump for the pandemic-induced recession (which you shouldn’t), Biden’s economic performance has been nothing short of miraculous: millions of jobs have been created, growth has been robust, investment in manufacturing has been directly boosted by his industrial policies, and the economy has fared much better than our global competitors in recovering from the pandemic. This outperformance includes inflation, which surged around the world due to supply chain problems and corporate price gouging, and from which the U.S. recovered faster than comparable countries.

And yet millions still believe that not only prices, but everything was better under Trump. NPR recently interviewed a Georgia voter who said she supported Trump “because her investments did better when he was in office.” Unless she’s invested in Trump NFTs, it’s hard to imagine what she could be talking about. The day before the 2020 election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 26,925; last Friday, it closed at 42,063, up 56%. The S&P 500 told the same story: It closed at 3,310 the day before the 2020 election and closed at 5,702 on Friday, up 72%.

Yet for several years now, many have been convinced that the economy is a disaster. A poll conducted in May found that 56% of Americans thought we were in a recession, 49% believed the stock market would fall this year, and, perhaps most incredibly of all, 49% said unemployment was near a 50-year high when in reality it is near a 50-year high. low.

Millions continue to believe that because Donald Trump is a wealthy businessman, he must really understand economics. After all, how could the man behind Trump University, Trump Steaks, and Trump Vodka not be an economic genius?

But that idea now seems to be falling apart for good. Perhaps some voters have looked more closely at the two candidates’ proposals and concluded that Harris’ ideas have more merit. Perhaps they have seen that both conservative and liberal economists agree that Trump’s plan for blanket tariffs would be an economic disaster. Or perhaps they have been impressed by Harris’ plan to lower housing prices.

However, it is more likely that voters Feelings translate into economic conclusions. Just as people thought Biden looked old and weak and therefore couldn’t have done a good job on the economy, many now feel Harris looks serious and competent and therefore can be trusted to do a better job. Her ratings have improved overall since her successful convention and strong debate performance, so that reputation has extended to the economy. And since Trump spends every day spreading crazy lies about immigrants, some voters may question his ability to handle a whole range of issues.

There’s reason to believe things could go even better for Harris on that front. The Fed’s decision to cut rates will likely give people confidence that mortgages and auto loans will become cheaper. Plus, she’ll likely continue to benefit from something no lawmaker has much control over: the retail price of gasoline. The national average price is currently $3.21 and falling, a full 66 cents lower than a year ago, and in many states the price is below $3.00.

By the time of the election, Harris may even have a real lead on economic issues. Voters are unlikely to make their judgments much more rationally than they did when they thought Trump was an economic genius. But at least the conclusion won’t be so crazy.