Four-team photo finish will test Twins’ courage and fans’ faith – Twins

As the final week of the 2024 season approaches, the American League Wild Card race continues to heat up, and it’s a battle few saw coming. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners are locked in a fierce battle for the final two Wild Card spots. October is upon us, every play and every pitch could change the momentum, and the drama is just beginning.

Kansas City Royals (Current record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Chances: 69.6%
Remaining schedule: 3 games @ Washington, 3 games @ Atlanta
The Royals have been in freefall for the past few weeks, with a record of 7-11 in September. Going into play on September 1, FanGraphs had them at a 79.5% chance of making the playoffs, which has only dropped slightly despite their poor play; they can thank the Twins for that. Their schedule for the final week is tough because they have to play six games on the road, and they have a 37-38 record away from Kauffman Stadium. Few thought Kansas City would be in this position in 2024, and they have been one of the best stories in baseball all season.

Due to a strange schedule shortening, the Royals will finish the season with three consecutive series against NL opponents, including two road series to end the year in Washington and Atlanta. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL and have been outscored by 100 runs. They have been playing for pride for several weeks, and they clearly don’t have much of it; they just had to demote shortstop CJ Abrams to the minor leagues after he sat out until the morning at a Chicago casino. This opponent could come just when Kansas City desperately needs to get back on track.

Atlanta is a different story, as they need to beat the Mets or Diamondbacks in the final week to secure a playoff spot. This series promises to be a tough one, and makes the Royals’ path to the playoffs quite dangerous. Their top left-hander Cole Ragans will be pitching in Washington on Tuesday night, and so they have the opportunity to use him again on Sunday with a spot on the line.

Detroit Tigers (Current record: 82-74)
FanGraphs Playoff Chances: 69.2%
Remaining schedule: 3 against Tampa, 3 against Chicago (AL)
The Tigers have gone from an afterthought in the AL to a serious contender thanks to a hot streak since the trade deadline. As a reminder, the Tigers were active sellers at the trade deadline, trading away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin and Carson Kelly. Detroit responded with a 17-11 record (.607 WL%) in August and played at an even hotter pace in September with a 12-6 record (.667 WL%). On August 1, FanGraphs rated the Tigers’ chance of making the playoffs at 0.5%. It’s been an incredible run, no matter what happens this week.

Detroit begins the final week with a home game against Tampa. The Rays have been hovering around .500 in a tough AL East with two strong top teams. Tampa is still a pain even when they’re struggling and is 11-10 this month, so they should provide an exciting series even though they’re not in the playoff race.

Schedule makers inadvertently gave the Tigers a huge gift on the final weekend of the season — one that could help them secure a playoff spot. Three games against the Chicago White Sox, the worst baseball team in history, should allow Detroit to finish the year on a high note. Chicago has five wins in September, more than it has in July or August. Minnesota fans must hope the White Sox can steal a game in the series. Probable AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal pitches on Tuesday, as does Ragan’s, and can pitch twice this week if the team needs him on Sunday.

Minnesota Twins (Current record: 81-75)
FanGraphs Playoff Chances: 54.7%
Remaining schedule 3 against Miami, 3 against Baltimore
The Twins have posted a .500 or better record in every month of the season except September. On Sept. 1, FanGraphs projected the Twins’ playoff chances at 91.7%, with a 20% chance of winning the AL Central. Cleveland clinched the division over the weekend, and Minnesota’s playoff chances have dropped significantly. After a frustrating series in Boston, the Twins are now underdogs, battling for the final spot. Minnesota also has arguably the toughest remaining schedule of the four teams.

A three-game series against Miami allows the Twins to get themselves back into the playoffs. The Marlins are the worst team in the NL this season, having been beaten by over 220 runs. Minnesota is expected to use Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa in the three games that could very well decide their playoff fate. In the final series of the year, the Twins will face the Orioles, who probably don’t have much to gain in the three games. Baltimore is all but assured of the first wild card spot and will have an opportunity to set up its playoff rotation and rest some of its regulars. The Twins will have to take advantage of a weaker version of the Orioles. Ober could pitch on Sunday as well as Tuesday, and Pablo López will pitch on Friday or Saturday, assuming the weekend games still matter.

Seattle Mariners (Current record: 80-76)
FanGraphs Playoff Chances: 6.1%
Remaining schedule: 3 @ Houston, 3 vs. Oakland
Poor play from the Twins and Royals has put the Mariners back in the playoffs. Seattle played below average in July and August before a modest rebound in September that could save their playoff hopes. At the start of the month, Seattle had a 7.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, and now they’re more or less in the same spot. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Mariners need help from AL Central contenders while facing two division opponents they know well.

The Mariners have done surprisingly well against the Astros this season, coming into their final three-game season run with a record of 6-4. However, they haven’t faced each other since mid-July, and Houston has played significantly better in the second half of the season. It will be a tough series, especially for a team that is 10 games under .500 on the road. Seattle finishes the year at home with a three-game series against an Oakland team that is 3-7 in its last 10 games. These two teams know each other well, with the Mariners holding a 6-4 edge so far in 2024.

The Twins are in an interesting situation with three teams standing between them and a playoff spot. Sunday’s doubleheader also means the Twins are not in control of their own destiny. Based on their head-to-head matchups this season, the Twins have tiebreakers against all three teams, which could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, but they will need to play well in their final two series for those tiebreakers to matter.

How will the final week turn out for the AL Wild Card contenders? Add your record and playoff predictions in the comments below.